It won’t take long for Mother Nature to incorporate severe weather into a new year.

The first day of 2017 will feature a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of West Texas, Southern Oklahoma, and Louisiana.

Rain and thunder will exist in much of the Gulf region on New Year’s, but the focus on severe weather lies in destabilizing atmospheric conditions on Sunday night.

Despite it being overnight, moderate instability will exist; dew points will be in the 60’s, and southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create an environment sustainable for severe weather.  Severe weather parameters will be roaring as a lower level jet also zooms across the region.

This setup is favorable for few supercell structures, while there are chances for an isolated tornado, the focus of these storms will be damaging winds and hail.

Cities like San Antonio, TX and Houston, TX are at risk for severe weather Sunday night.

The highest risk for damaging winds, hail to quarter size, and possibly an isolated tornado will be south of the I-20 corridor and Central Texas, where better moisture and instability will exist.

The most likely time for the storms to move across eastern Texas will be between 11 PM Sunday and 6 AM Monday.

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Overall, coastal areas of the Gulf may see 2-3″ inches of rain with a morning and afternoon round of storms.

On Monday, severe weather is likely and shifts more towards New Orleans, LA and especially eastern Mississippi – Jackson, MS.

This synoptic setup is favorable once again for supercell structures and for discrete tornadoes.

Here at Neoweather US we will be watching the models very carefully and will provide more updates as it comes in.

About Jeremy Crookston

Jeremy Crookston has won Meteorology awards through Ohio University, AMS, NOAA, and has presented ZDR research in Charleston, SC, Washington D.C. and Seattle, WA. While majoring in Meteorology, he serves as Leadership President with the College of Business, and also majors in Marketing and MIS. He loves nature, reading and especially a good cup of coffee.
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