Flooding will be a concern across a corridor stretching from Missouri to Ohio. In anticipation of locally heavy rainfall amounts, flood and flash flood watches have been posted. Some locations could see total accumulations reaching five inches.

The total rainfall through Saturday morning depicted by the GFS.

The total rainfall through Saturday morning depicted by the GFS.

The total rainfall through Saturday morning depicted by the NAM..

The total rainfall through Saturday morning depicted by the NAM.

Many forecast models are pointing to a swath of two inches or more of rain, with some locations approaching five inches. The axis of heaviest rain appears to lie from eastern Missouri to southeastern Michigan, although some discrepancies exist between models. Regardless, totals in this realm will yield significant flooding (both river and flash) given recent wet conditions.

The flash flood guidance values across the Ohio River basin have been lowered by recent rainfall.

The flash flood guidance values across the Ohio River basin have been lowered by recent rainfall.

Widespread significant flooding was produced by heavy thunderstorms associated with the system that pushed across the United States last weekend. This recent event has primed many areas for second wave of flooding with already saturated soils and many rivers running near or at flood stage. Many counties can only handle up to two inches of rainfall before flash flooding is initiated. This condition will be challenged in many locations.

The river gauge on the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO.

The river gauge on the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO.

Given the conditions discussed above, a few locations along the Mississippi River are expected to see to see near record river flooding. Cape Girardeau, MO is one of these locations. The current forecast is for the river to crest at 48.5ft, just 0.4ft shy of the record highest level.

Important takeaways from this event are to be aware of local river observations/forecasts and head flood hazard statements issued by the National Weather Service. And, of course, never try to navigate flooded roadways!

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