The weather forecast models have jumped around shifting the area of heavy snow and possible ice. We mentioned Monday that a corridor of heavy snow would be likely for parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This certainly won’t be a historic storm, but several inches of snow are likely in spots.
The models a few days ago had heavy snow over portions of Indiana, Michigan and western Ohio. Tonight many of the models are shifting the heavy snow zone from Northeast Ohio up into upstate New York and New England. We aren’t buying the farthest east trends just yet, but the forecast for heavier snow totals is definitely eastward.
If you want to see all of our reasoning for our forecast then I highly recommend watching our Facebook Live video that dives into all the model madness and why we have the forecast that we do.
The snow forecast is certainly subject to change due to the very dynamic conditions in the atmosphere. Plenty of moisture will be streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico with a huge temperature gradient over Ohio. Look at the difference in temperatures Friday morning!
The major difference in temperatures should cause the storm to squeeze out tons of moisture and allow for heavy sleet and snow for at least a few hours. Warm air 5-10 thousand feet aloft in the atmosphere will melt snow SE from Cincinnati to Youngstown causing the precip to refreeze near the ground as sleet. An area of freezing rain also looks likely.
The ice accumulation will not get out of hand, but it could be create a nice coating especially near the Ohio River in the southeastern part of the state. A few other areas have a chance for less than 0.10″ of freezing rain. This is similar to what went through Monday morning causing a pretty big inconvenience for many AM commuters.
The very changeable models still have some time to shuffle around before settling on the correct solution, or maybe they already have. There is not high confidence in our snow forecast at this time due to the track and strength of the low pressure system not being very clear. Our forecast will likely change, but here’s our thinking as of Wednesday evening.
Rain arrives Thursday night into Friday morning before temperatures crash from northwest to southeast. This will change things over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain and then over to snow by the afternoon and evening hours. Where the heaviest snow zone is over 9 inches is possible.
If you are traveling Friday evening or early Saturday morning the roads will not likely be great in areas that see the heavier snow and ice. Even if these snow totals were cut in half there would likely be slow driving in spots.
We will continue to stay up on the weather details as we get closer to the storm and give future updates. Thanks for reading!
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- Rain Changes To Snow Thursday Evening - February 28, 2018
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- Significant Snow in Parts of the Great Lakes - February 8, 2018