Temperatures this past week have been well below average, as a long-wave trough dug into the Eastern US, bringing multiple rounds of cold air from Canada into the region.  This has also be accompanied with widespread showers across the state, and even a few flakes into northern Ohio.  This weekend will be warmer than the week so far, but the unsettled pattern looks to continue as the transition of seasons does as well.

Friday

A cold front looks to trek through the state overnight into Friday, moving through the Toledo/Findlay area during the morning hours, and eventually reaching Southeast Ohio during the late afternoon.  The orientation and speed of the front suggest it will fairly weak, but with the persistent southerly flow and enough moisture in place, isolated showers will be a real possibility as it passes through the state.  Winds will shift to out of the north after the front passes, but quickly back to out of the south.  Temperatures will fall throughout the day and into late Friday night, until southerly winds begin another upward swing.

Showers along the weak cold front can be seen the WPC rainfall outlook for Friday, with fairly low totals expected across the state.

Saturday

After the winds back to out of the south, temperatures will begin to slowly recover into the late afternoon.  Skies will begin to clear out after the cold front passes, and then build back in from the south as more moisture returns.  As a result, temperatures will be fairly uniform across the state on Saturday, with regions along Lake Erie being a few degrees cooler due to wind rushing across the lake early in the day.  Clouds continue to build into the greater Cleveland area by the evening hours, leading to more overcast skies and warmer overnight temperatures into Sunday.

This shows the model output of relative humidity in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which can be used to predict changes in cloud cover over certain regions.

Sunday

Temperatures will continue their upward swing into Sunday, as southerly winds continue to push warmer air into the region.  Due to increasing moisture levels aloft, overcast skies can be expected across a major of the state yet again.  Dry conditions will persist through a majority of the day, as another system approaches from the west.  Parts of Northwest Ohio may see a few showers during the early afternoon hours, but overall a fair day weather wise across the state.  Conditions then quickly change again heading into Monday, as a more potent cold front is expected to enter the region to begin the week.

Side note: The recent unsettled pattern is common for this time of the year, as the transition of seasons begins to break down the more stable patters that are traditionally held in place during the summer months.  The polar jet stream also is beginning to amplify and move further south into the United States again, another commonality of autumn.

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About Kevin Thiel

Kevin is a Meteorology Major and Mathematics Minor at Ohio University, with an interest for thunderstorm electrification and research. On campus, he serves as President of the AMS Student Chapter, along with Webmaster and Forecaster for the campus atmospheric lab. This past summer, Kevin interned at the National Weather Service office in Miami, Florida, using lightning and radar data to study severe thunderstorm potential. One day, Kevin hopes to enter into field of academia and research, or become a forecaster with the Storm Prediction Center.
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