Summer may be right around the corner, but this week certainly did not feel like it across the state of Ohio.  Temperatures were below average for a majority of the week, but a strong warming trend will take its place beginning this weekend.  This article will step you through the current setup, and how those changes will effect your weekend weather.


From the upper air map taken Thursday evening, the remnants of the upper level low can be seen with the sharp “dip” in the just stream. This feature will move northeast and out of the midwest.

As of Friday morning, a decayed upper level low will make its exit from the midwest, heading northeast.  At the surface, a weak surface low has developed across the Great Lakes, heading southeast toward the state.  Behind the exiting upper level low is a shortwave trough, which will pick up the surface low.  The low will track across northern Ohio and strengthen, bringing increasing cloud cover during the day Friday and widespread showers and thunderstorm.  On the other hand, southern Ohio will still see increasing clouds, but showers will be more scattered due to the location and track of the low.


Once the low passes, leftover showers exit before noon, and high pressure from the south begins to take control.  A strong upper level ridge will help to funnel warm air form the Gulf into the midwest.  The feeling of warm summer days return by Saturday afternoon, followed by clearing skies.  Also, temperatures across the state will reach over 80 degrees, and dew points will slowly increase as well.  Heading into Saturday night, clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to low sixties.

An increasing temperature trend can be shown not just in our setup, but also through the models, which also show increasing temperatures through the weekend!


By Sunday, the upper level ridge has planted itself across the eastern United States. The ridge will pull even more heat and moisture northward.  With mostly clear skies creating a sunny day across the state, temperatures will jump to just under 90 degrees!  Quite the temperature swing,  that will stay in place beginning next week.

The GFS shows the dominant ridge by Sunday, defined by the large arc, across the eastern United States, and will be responsible for the warming trend.


About Kevin Thiel

Kevin is a Meteorology Major and Mathematics Minor at Ohio University, with an interest for thunderstorm electrification and research. On campus, he serves as President of the AMS Student Chapter, along with Webmaster and Forecaster for the campus atmospheric lab. This past summer, Kevin interned at the National Weather Service office in Miami, Florida, using lightning and radar data to study severe thunderstorm potential. One day, Kevin hopes to enter into field of academia and research, or become a forecaster with the Storm Prediction Center.