A strong low pressure system will track over the state late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Ahead of it, a warm front will lift northward across the state, closely followed by a strong cold front Tuesday night.  Warm and humid air will flow into the state and, combined with good dynamics for thunderstorms, will allow for the potential for severe weather to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening.

 

Tuesday morning will start off with rain across parts of the state.  This will clear out as the warm front lifts through the region during the afternoon.  A more unstable atmosphere will then take over, allowing for thunderstorms to develop both ahead and along a cold front that moves through Tuesday night.  Behind the front, we’ll see scattered snow showers for parts of Northern Ohio during the day on Wednesday.  See?  Winter just won’t go away!  Temperatures on Wednesday won’t be warm either, with highs generally in the lower to middle 30s.   Brrr!

 

But you’ll get a one day reprieve on Tuesday as highs soar into the low 60s for the northern part of Ohio and lower 70s for southern Ohio.  Northwest Ohio gets left out however as temperatures only range in the upper 30s to mid 40s.  However, we could see warm air briefly stream into the Toledo area around 8-9 PM.  Don’t expect it to last for much more than an hour though.  Temperatures in the Northwest corner will vary drastically across a short distance.

 

Here’s a look at our latest Futurecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening:

 

Strong to severe storms are forecast.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southwestern Ohio in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms.  North and east of there, there is a Slight Risk for severe weather and for much of the eastern portion of the state, a Marginal Risk for severe weather.  Look for strong to severe storms generally any time after 2 pm and persisting through midnight.  There will be quiet periods during the mid to late afternoon hours before storms begin to develop ahead of the cold front.

 

Tuesday’s Severe Weather Risk for Ohio

 

Given the setup, we could see all three major severe weather modes: damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.  The strongest storms will generally be focused across southwestern Ohio, where the best threat for large hail and a few tornadoes exist.  However, this could extend a little further north and east into the slight risk area as well.  Damaging winds will be noted with any strong storm, especially with the storms that develop along the cold front Tuesday night.

 

Our Exclusive NEORisk for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening shows that damaging winds are the biggest threat, along with large hail. Tornadoes remain at a low threat and a few are possible, especially across Southwestern Ohio.

 

We’ll continue to monitor the latest model trends as we push into this busy, spring season.  Neoweather is the home for active weather coverage and seasonal forecasts.  If the need arises, you can find us on Facebook Live through our Ohio First Warn Weather page, bringing you the latest details on the storms.

 

 

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About Mark Spencer

Mark Spencer joined Neoweather in August of 2010 and has lived in Northeast Ohio for most of his life. Mark has played a vital role in helping Neoweather to advance and grow. Currently he serves as the Client Services Director and Assistant Financial Director for Neoweather, overseeing client relations and managing the company’s finances. Outside of Neoweather, Mark works as an Air Traffic Controller and holds an Associate’s Degree in Air Traffic Control. He enjoys being outdoors and spends as much time as he can with his son and his wife Loretta.
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