A November severe weather event might be taking shape as we go throughout Sunday and into the early morning hours Monday. Storms that form could produce damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes and flooding.
As of 11:30 Sunday morning a few pockets of rain and storms were around. There are severe storms near Fort Wayne, IN moving into NW Ohio. These storms are already producing flash flooding.
A large chunk of the Midwest is under the gun for severe storms. An enhanced risk (3/5 on the severe chances scale) is in place for much of Indiana and Ohio. We have been advertising the risk of an active Sunday for a few days now.
Ohio can expect the risk for all types of severe weather as the afternoon goes into evening. The best risk for supercell thunderstorms that could produce large hail and tornadoes will be in the western part of the state from Findlay to Dayton and Cincinnati. These storms would be likely through late afternoon. The storms will likely congeal more into squall lines later on, which should make it more of a wind threat further east.
Several rounds of heavy rain will move across some of the same locations in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. A *Flash Flood Watch* is out for most of Ohio including Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo and Lima. Several rounds of heavy rain will continue to develop and track through. This is due to very high levels of atmospheric moisture being tossed into the warm sector ahead of the cold front. The moisture is streaming in from the south and southwest. The front is slow-moving and has winds from the west and northwest. This causes the moisture to pile up near the front and lift into the atmosphere due to convergence.
Some computer models are showing as much as 3-5″ of rain in localized spots. Overall much of the state will see between 1-3″ of rain. This will cause widespread ponding of water. The heaviest slow-moving storms likely will cause flooding on low-lying areas, especially near streams and rivers.
The Futurecast below shows some pretty heavy rain moving through. The leading edge of storms could have damaging winds. The threat for hail or an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
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