SPC Day 3 Outlook: Most likely regions impacted by storms in Ohio on Wednesday, 5/24/17.

As we move through the rest of the week/weekend, Ohio will be experiencing rain. Throughout this week, storms are also possible from time to time so plan accordingly with outdoor activities. Expect conditions to fluctuate temperature wise just slightly. High temperatures in the mid 70’s and lows in the mid-to-upper 50’s before the cold front. After the front, you may see high temperatures in the 60’s, and low temperatures in the low 50’s. Use extra caution while driving on slick roads, especially in times of thunderstorms and low visibility. Don’t forget your umbrellas this week!

Setup of System

As the week moves forward, a low pressure center forms over the midwest, and it doesn’t move much over time. This results in conditions that may produce rain, and even some storms for an extended period of time. Along side the low pressure, there is also cold front that will move across the midwest Tuesday night, overnight into Wednesday. Rain often occurs following the passage of a cold front. Based on the location of the low, southern regions of Ohio may experience rain as early as Tuesday evening. More central/northern regions of Ohio will see impacts Wednesday morning onward.

NAM model run, showing Precipitation Over OH. 21Z Wed, 5/22/17. (Conditions by 9PM Wednesday)The frontal forcing along the cold front along with low pressure, come together to create conditions that may possibly produce storms. The most likely time for storms to occur is throughout the day Wednesday, especially in late afternoon to early evening. Based on some of the model scans/Storm Prediction Center reports, the more northeastern parts of Ohio will not be impacted as strongly from the severe weather. But it is likely that that area will still receive rain throughout the week. This system will start to dissipate, but then re-strengthen briefly. This re-strengthening is responsible for the precipitation into Thursday.

A Brief Relief, and Then Round 2

Around the end of the work week, conditions become dry again, but this is only a brief relief from the wet conditions brought by this system. As the low pressure center dissipates, another one has been forming to the west. This low pressure will reach the area by Saturday and have impacts in the midwest throughout the weekend, possibly into early next week. This precipitation doesn’t appear to be accompanied by any strong forcing, so severe weather appears to be pretty unlikely at this point in time. However, things change so keep an eye on updates for weekend probability for storms.

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About Alex Burton

Alex graduated with a degree in meteorology from Ohio University. He is pursuing internships and other professional volunteer work for a year before continuing his education. Alex has had a fascination with the weather from a young age and has a particular interest in severe weather. He's completed research on the microscale effects on mountains due to weather. He is very interested in space weather.
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