It is June. That must mean tropical season is starting to kick into high gear. This year has gotten off to an active start. Right now, shown on the infrared satellite, is a tropical disturbance down in the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a named tropical storm and it’s not even a depression yet. The cause for concern is because it is entering into a favorable environment for development.

It’s still early in the tropical season and this means the water temperatures are not super warm yet, but they are still a good enough. A good path for this storm to travel is present with relatively warm water and lack of wind shear (change of wind speed and/or direction with height in the atmosphere).

The computer models are in general good agreement on the system strengthening some and then moving in the U.S.

That will lead to very heavy rainfall down along the Gulf Coast. The placement of the low pressure area as it approaches the Gulf Coast is not set in stone. However, where it does move to, plenty of rainfall is forecast. Even if the storm does not get a name there will still be a surplus of moisture.

The forecast models have shown a westward trend in the track during the next several days. East of the track, very heavy rainfall is likely. When there is a tropical disturbance that moves inland, there is always the risk for tornado activity. That would occur mainly to the east of the center. Gusty winds and some minor storm surge are also likely as we go into Wednesday and Thursday.

The storm would be set to make landfall in Louisiana or eastern Texas.It is definitely something to monitor in the coming days, especially if you have interest down along the Gulf Coast during the next several days. Stay tuned.

Jim Martin – Forecaster