Autumn is a transition season and we’re certainly struggling with the transition to winter.  We’ve talked in past articles about blocking and colder weather arriving just in time for Thanksgiving and that looks to hold true.  What’s not so certain is whether or not any snow will accompany that colder air around the busiest travel time of the year.

 

This Weekend

A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday and early Sunday.  This will bring lots of rain and even some thunderstorms to parts of the state.  Winds will also pick up and we could see gusts in the 40-50 MPH range at times across parts of Western Ohio on Saturday and early Sunday.  As the front moves through Saturday night, cold air will follow suit and bring lake effect snow showers to much of Northeastern Ohio.  This looks to being snow to both the primary snowbelt and much of the secondary snowbelt as cold air rushes in across a warm Lake Erie.  Parts of Western and even Central Ohio could see some light snow showers off of Lake Michigan.  The snow doesn’t look to be long-lived and parts of the snowbelt will likely end up see only a couple inches of new snow accumulation.  This could change and it’s just a little too soon to nail down accumulation specifics.

 

There’s fairly decent model agreement on some lake effect snowfall this weekend, primarily Sunday. This is the GFS Model.

 

Here is the European Model at 7 AM Sunday with a similar idea across Ohio. Source: weather.us

 

Next Week

The GFS (American) Model

Both global models diverge significantly next week.  While both agree that Monday will be dry with a ridge of high pressure moving through, they really differ after that.  The GFS (American) model brings a strong low pressure system across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  A new secondary low then forms over the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday morning, and will move up the coast, taking the energy from the low over Lake Huron with it.  This will drive in colder air to the region and also bring favorable winds for lake effect snowfall.  Lake effect snow will be prevalent off of Lake Michigan into Indiana and along the western shore of Michigan.  Additional lake effect snow will also fall in the primary snowbelt in Ohio.  Lake effect sticks around through Thanksgiving Day and dissipates that night and early Friday morning as high pressure brings drier air into the region.

Temperatures for the week: Monday, highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Tuesday, highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.  Wednesday, highs around 32°F.  Thursday:  highs in the lower to middle 30s.

The GFS Model shows a very active storm for the middle of next week that, if it pans out, could bring lake effect snow to parts of the Great Lakes for Thanksgiving Day.

 

The European (Euro) Model

The European Model (Euro) has an entire different story.  A story of high pressure.  It agrees with a cold front moving across the region on Tuesday but the overall system remains weak.  Behind it, the region looks high and dry through the end of the week.

Temperatures for the week: Monday, highs in the low 40s.  Tuesday, highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.  Wednesday, highs in the low to middle 30s. Thursday, highs in the middle to upper 30s.

The European model for the same time period keeps us “high and dry” with high pressure building into the region and just a few light lake effect snow showers across Western New York. Source: weather.us

 

The Bottom Line

As you can see, it’s not such an easy forecast.  Other long range models have differing ideas, with no real model consistency from one model to the next.  While models do agree on a trend toward cooler temperatures for next week, the bottom line is, anything goes.  We will have to watch models closely as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday to see which solution looks to be prevalent.  While we do think a more active pattern is setting up, it’s still too soon to say which model solution has a better handle on the overall setup.

We’ll keep watching this setup and provide additional updates as we get closer to Thanksgiving!

 

 

 

 

 

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About Mark Spencer

Mark Spencer joined Neoweather in August of 2010 and has lived in Northeast Ohio for most of his life. Mark has played a vital role in helping Neoweather to advance and grow. Currently he serves as the Client Services Director and Assistant Financial Director for Neoweather, overseeing client relations and managing the company’s finances. Outside of Neoweather, Mark works as an Air Traffic Controller and holds an Associate’s Degree in Air Traffic Control. He enjoys being outdoors and spends as much time as he can with his son and his wife Loretta.
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